新的一年到来了，从事电子培训的专家们也马不停蹄的开始了对新的学习技术的预测。其中一个有趣的话题是关于移动学习未来发展的方向。有两种对立的观点：一是移动学习终究会退出历史舞台。另一种是移动学习尚还在初级阶段，还有发展的空间。

提出前一种观点（移动学习会退出）的是Roger Schank博士。身为情景学习的提倡者，Schank博士认为，学习是发生在具体的情景之中的。学习者需要在一定的情景之下有大量练习的机会。整天的盯着狭小的手机屏幕并不实际，而且这样的学习也不会在乘车的时候发生。下面是Schank博士的原话：
"Mobile e-learning will go away. There is always the latest thing in e-learning that everyone must do. One of my least favorite of these is mobile e-learning. E-learning will not happen, at least not seriously, on mobile phones. Why not? Because it takes time to learn something. You have to really understand a situation. You have to practice a skill. You have to consider alternatives. You have to create deliverables. At least you do for the e-learning that I build. This takes time—a lot of time. It was seriously suggested recently in a full year all day every day course I was building, that we needed to make it available on mobile phones. I don't know about you, but staring at mobile phone for an hour makes my eyes hurt. Try doing it all day for a year. It makes no sense. We don't learn anything instantly. Real learning is not done on a train or a bus. The kinds of courses that can be delivered that way will be shown to not be particularly useful. "
Roger C. Schank, Socratic Arts Corp., and eLearn Magazine opinion columnist

另外一种观点则是认为移动学习有发展的空间。因为“重复使用的学习包，模拟化学习，游戏化学习等能够为移动学习提供空间。”此外，及时学习也是移动学习能够提供的一大优点。反对者还提到用手机可以及时的上Google查资料, 上Flash学习网站进行简短的学习，或者是查看RSS消息等。

我个人则认为，移动学习受两大方面影响：一是提供和支持移动学习的设备。二是符合移动学习的课件设计和实用文化。前者受硬件和资金的限制较多。而后者受到对学习者行为习惯和教学设计技巧的约束。若是能有效的解决这两种问题。移动学习则能继续良好的发展。

如果你有更好的观点，欢迎分享。