刚查了一下关于这个青蛙理论（boiled-frog syndrome）的英文资料，觉得wikipedia上的资料比较令人满意，所以转过来：
Boiling frog
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The boiling frog story is related of a frog,
which can be boiled alive if the water is heated slowly enough—it is
said that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but
if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will never jump
out.
The story is generally told in a figurative context, with the upshot
being that people should make themselves aware of gradual change lest
they suffer a catastrophic loss. Often it is used to illustrate a slippery-slope argument. For example, many civil libertarians
argue that even minor increases in government authority, which may seem
less noteworthy, make future increases in that authority more likely:
what would once have seemed a huge power grab, the argument goes, now
becomes seen as just another incremental increase, and thus appears
more palatable. In the boiling-frog allegory, the frog represents the
citizenry, whilst the gradual heating of the water represents the
incremental encroachment of government. Another term for this is the Totalitarian Tiptoe.
In the UK railway industry, "boiling frog syndrome" has been adopted
as shorthand for the unnoticed escalation in infrastructure and
maintenance costs under Railtrack. The phrase was first coined by Roger Ford, columnist for Modern Railways magazine.
The story has been reprinted many times and used to illustrate many different points, including:
- warning against people sympathetic to the Soviet Union ("The frog
dropped into boiling water has sense to leap out, but the frog dropped
into cold water can be cooked to death before he realizes he is in
serious trouble. So it is with us Americans and our civilization in
this mounting crisis. We must beware of those who want to thaw the cold
war out at any cost. We may be cooked before we realize what has
happened.")
- warning against inaction in response to climate change ("This is
not an experiment I wish to commend, but it has lessons for another
animal—ourselves. If drastic change takes place abruptly, we notice and
react to it. If it takes place gradually, over a few generations, we
are hardly aware of it, and by the time that we are ready to react, it
can be too late.")
- warning about the impending collapse of civilization ("That's
what's happening to us. Things are getting worse and worse, so we don't
really notice what's happening. Whatever happens will happen slowly,
and we won't have time to jump out.")
- as a way of understanding the Sorites paradox
("The art of frog-boiling is an ancient one, and the correct procedure
will emerge in the course of considering an ancient puzzle, the
so-called 'Paradox of the Heap' or Sorites.")
- warning against being in abusive relationships ("We are not
inclined to notice gradual changes. This is how most partners adapt to
verbal abuse. They slowly adapt until, like frog number two, they are
living in an environment which is killing to their spirit.")
Al Gore uses the analogy in his presentations and the movie "An Inconvenient Truth" to describe peoples' ignorance towards the issue of global warming. It is extremely common in books about business,
economics, and marketing to illustrate the idea that change needs to be
gradual if it is to be accepted, and as a warning against being slowly
"boiled" in one's job.
Veracity
Experiments have debunked this story in recent times. However, older experiments have shown that the story is indeed true.
Notably, in the experiment that debunked the story, the water
temperature was increased at a faster rate than in the earlier
experiment.
The story can be found in print in the English language going back
at least until the 19th century in the context of temperature physiology.